National economic performance in the business cycle 2. vydání

The publication focuses on practical application of general theory of business cycle in the field of international trade. Goods and services markets are analyzed with respect to their part in the business cycle and the behavior of relevant markets for goods and services. The business cycle analysis starts with the description of general characteristics and the variability of various markets. The relation between goods and services markets and global business cycle is analyzed with respect to the respective business cycle phases. Three main groups of markets are described as follows: 1. Markets developing in compliance with the global business cycle. 2. Markets developing inversely to the global business cycle. 3. Markets not sensitive to cyclical fluctuations. Well-known substitution or income effects in the consumers' behavior are reflected in the business cycle in specific goods and services markets. Major impacts on further developments of each goods or services market is gener­ated by markets for substitute or complementary goods and services.

Estimating the future course of business cycle in goods and services markets requires knowledge of price elasticity shown by demand for specific goods or services, or the price elasticity shown by the supply and the income elasticity of consumers' expenses. Assessment of behavior demonstrated by various entities in the market strongly depends on the market structure. Mainly oligopolies and international cartels specifically affect goods and services markets where they operate.

The publication brings an overview of indicators applied in the business cycle analysis and points out specific limits and pitfalls. Indicators applied to the busi­ness cycle analysis of goods and services markets are defined and structured in groups with respect to the international trade. Main indicators focus on the analysis of output, consumption and inventories in commodity markets and conditions of delivery and specifics in markets of services. Special attention is paid to the prices in international trade, and the exports and imports of commodities and services. Long-run trends, fluctuations within the business cycle, seasonal fluctuations and short-run factors influencing prices are discussed. Types of prices and price indices are described together with consequences of price changes in international trade.

Multiple figures in the monograph reflect and demonstrate the current situation and cyclical development of the analyzed indicators. The Appendix enlightens the difficulties that readers of economic publications typically face when analyzing and interpreting the indexed indicators and the economic growth rate.